Those numbers reflect the IEA’s caution about the outlook for energy efficiency. In the Current Policies Scenario total world energy consumption by 2040 grows by 34% from its 2018 level, and in the Stated Policies Scenario it grows by 24%. Those three scenarios have radically different implications for total world energy demand, as this chart shows. Its three main projections are its Current Policies Scenario, which is essentially a” business as usual” case assuming existing frameworks remain in place, a Stated Policies Scenario, which incorporates announced policy intentions and targets, and a Sustainable Development Scenario, which would achieve the Paris climate goal as well as universal energy access and cleaner air. The IEA presents its projections as scenarios showing possible future states of the world rather than forecasts, and conditions those scenarios mostly on policy changes. In some respects, however, WoodMac is rather more optimistic about the outlook. Wood Mackenzie’s Energy Transition Outlook in August warned that the world was on a path to about 3 ☌ of warming, rather than the “well below” 2 ☌ objective of the 2015 Paris climate agreement. Other analysts have delivered similar messages. Fatih Birol, the IEA’s executive director, warned that “the world urgently needs to put a laser-like focus on bringing down global emissions”. Media coverage highlighted a range of different lines, including the prospect that the continued growth of tight oil would bolster US influence over OPEC member countries, and the IEA’s warning that the world’s greenhouse gas emissions are set to rise until 2040, even if governments meet their existing environmental targets. Even people who disagree with its conclusions acknowledge that it provides a wealth of thought-provoking data and analysis, and the 808-page 2019 edition, published this week, is no exception. The annual publication of the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook is always a landmark event in the calendar.
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